Geostatistics applied to predictive modeling of seismic damage in Sarmiento (San Juan, Argentina)
Keywords:
mapas, cuantificacion, amenazaAbstract
The Sarmiento Department, like the entire province of San Juan, has a seismic history marked by powerful and destructive earthquakes, such as those recorded in 1894, 1941, 1944, 1952, 1977, and 2021. These events have left a profound impact, causing severe damage and even the collapse of homes, public buildings, and historic structures, along with substantial economic losses affecting large sectors of the population. Unfortunately, they have also resulted in a significant number of injuries and fatalities.
In response to this context, the objective of this study is to advance the understanding of population-level damage in the Sarmiento Department by quantifying it and applying advanced spatial analysis methodologies. To achieve this, geostatistical methods are employed to develop predictive models of seismic damage, as the variables involved exhibit spatial continuity and are therefore well suited to this type of analysis. The results offer clear and concise predictive models that can support decision-making and management actions in the event of a seismic event.
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